Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 100226.975894 105609.992217 110986.451128 116755.738740 122767.647323 128844.085239 135446.294489
2025-08-17 90991.638947 99206.571719 107635.485002 116919.592438 126847.602239 137134.939556 148589.342430
2025-08-24 85248.290882 95480.872885 106204.187189 118257.435708 131405.327824 145289.326969 161036.118422
2025-08-31 79874.621987 91533.569820 103972.090894 118193.228676 133964.568581 150881.106019 170359.406575
2025-09-07 76534.943909 89457.137805 103457.007707 119697.543722 137962.749029 157813.715053 180961.740856
2025-09-14 73416.506609 87365.048968 102688.439033 120697.938577 141207.881948 163760.401423 190354.070511
2025-09-21 70168.981952 84912.344347 101320.096103 120838.735659 143325.309889 168317.481171 198089.748740
2025-09-28 67296.758366 82724.177851 100101.931990 121007.804459 145350.415487 172672.840208 205525.740902
2025-10-05 65690.846950 81907.051954 100373.994664 122815.698727 149197.063236 179068.654587 215285.204098
2025-10-12 64066.795574 80973.712143 100428.467138 124297.874585 152611.169582 184935.526422 224430.604120
2025-10-19 62204.296802 79664.527421 99959.675323 125091.376516 155161.116167 189762.906122 232354.601072
2025-10-26 60159.606705 78048.127573 99046.932328 125284.727305 156942.175691 193649.624725 239155.889476
2025-11-02 58331.852653 76649.903400 98362.791488 125733.324756 159029.419054 197924.739455 246477.873542
2025-11-09 56450.709806 75119.656976 97461.186335 125869.055358 160705.130969 201694.836475 253207.043668
2025-11-16 55332.953637 74495.084223 97629.842731 127281.022943 163909.233998 207292.770812 262147.006276
2025-11-23 53557.970428 72978.030828 96638.064453 127210.819077 165261.632383 210634.143032 268360.223467
2025-11-30 52687.443857 72576.471293 97007.055266 128807.651846 168653.184403 216451.733404 277601.160236
2025-12-07 51619.129862 71880.049595 96971.087596 129869.651146 171365.438035 221439.070437 285847.982845
2025-12-14 50190.545438 70669.127804 96241.252125 130019.101223 172911.286116 224980.179775 292323.029140
2025-12-21 48848.055555 69528.267001 95562.446522 130198.581923 174468.331031 228521.023776 298799.648774
2025-12-28 48336.659675 69463.853200 96252.064122 132117.702360 178222.246946 234801.016989 308704.335777
2026-01-04 47704.001825 69213.838561 96682.469231 133690.837089 181534.756213 240542.343767 317969.446112
2026-01-11 46793.626187 68561.748998 96563.696438 134532.951407 183902.756361 245101.794655 325774.791469